Inflation in food articles during May stood at 1.13 per cent, as against 2.55 per cent in April.
Das favoured shifting the stance of monetary policy from neutral to accommodative to send a clear signal, indicating that more measures could be taken in the near future to boost growth.
Inflation breached the upper end of the RBI's comfort level of 4 per cent plus-minus two percentage points.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
Retail inflation slowed to 4.29 per cent in April from 5.52 per cent in March, mainly due to easing food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank mainly factors in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) while arriving at its monetary policy. As per the data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, inflation in the food basket was 2.02 per cent in April, down from 4.87 per cent in the preceding month.
India's services sector activities eased in March as growth was hit by the detrimental impact of the coronavirus pandemic and input costs remained elevated, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally-adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 55.3 in February to 54.6 in March. Though the rates of expansion softened, it indicated growth for the sixth consecutive month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'Are they assuming that by the end of May or the 15th of June, we will see the end of the pandemic?'
Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced a slew of measures including loan restructuring for individual and small businesses hit hard by fresh COVID-19 wave. To augment supply of goods for COVID care, the central bank opened Rs 50,000 crore on-tap window to ease access to emergency health services to boost provision of immediate liquidity for ramping up COVID-19 related healthcare infrastructure and services in the country. This liquidity window is being opened till March 31, 2022, he said, adding that under the scheme, banks can provide fresh lending support to a wide ranging of entities including vaccine manufacturers, importers and suppliers of vaccine and medical devices, hospitals and dispensaries and suppliers of oxygen and ventilators importers and also patients for treatment.
This is aimed at improving liquidity in all schemes and would help them to meet sudden redemption pressures, said Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi.
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
A balance transfer to another lender entails substantial cost and time.
As FY20 Budget fiscal measures need to be better understood, a reversal of the stance back to neutral will allow MPC flexibility to respond to incoming data.
A majority 61.3 per cent of drug users in South Asia are from India and 17 is the average age at which Indians get exposed to alcohol, according to a new United Nations report.
'We would advise investors to invest in a disciplined way in equities for the long term.'
While banks are not as exposed as the corporate sector during the initial stage of the pandemic, the strain on lenders could ultimately be profound. Banks face a second-order hit compared with the corporate and household sectors.
'For someone who wants to invest for the future or his family, diversification is necessary.' 'Diversify across asset classes -- equities, gold, real estate, fixed income, commodities, and even cryptocurrency.'
Under the new Monetary Policy Framework, the central bank aims to contain inflation at 4 per cent with a band of (+/-) 2 per cent.
Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Bank's comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.54 per cent in November.
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
Arguing that the recent elevation in retail inflation is not structural but supply-driven and therefore potentially transitory, a foreign brokerage report has forecast that the benign interest rate regime will continue at least until next June. The assessment comes a day ahead of the third bimonthly monetary policy review on Friday wherein it's widely expected that the monetary authority will leave the key rates unchanged at 4 per cent even though the consumer prices have been on remaining above 6 per cent since May and crude prices have been north of $70 a barrel for months.
Amid fears of a third wave of coronavirus pandemic and hardening of retail inflation, the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rate and watch the developing macroeconomic situation for some more time before taking any decisive action on monetary policy. The RBI is scheduled to announce its bi-monthly monetary policy review on August 6 at the end of the three-day meeting -- August 4-6 -- of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The RBI Governor-headed six-member MPC decides on the key policy rates.
Indian economy was growing faster than the global average and all other major economies: FM
Axis Bank was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, plunging more than 5 per cent, followed by HDFC, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank and IndusInd Bank. On the other hand, M&M, Infosys, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
Bank credit growth declined to 8.5 per cent in January from 13.5 per cent in the year-ago period.
The government Rs 20 lakh crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore of fiscal stimulus announced in the first phase, Rs 5.6 lakh crore stimulus provided through various monetary policy measures and Rs 5.94 lakh crore through the second phase, implying Rs 6.70 lakh crore package is still to be announced.
'This is for the first time home loan rates have dropped below 7 per cent,' notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
With inflation figures expected to be well within RBI's target, there may be room for further rate cut.
Asset quality of banks, which saw some improvement in the second half of 2020, is likely to worsen during the first six months of 2021, according to a survey. The findings are part of the 12th round of bankers' survey carried out by FICCI-IBA between July and December 2020. The survey was conducted on 20 banks, including public sector, private sector and foreign banks, representing about 59 per cent of the banking industry, as classified by asset size.
RBI retained the GDP growth for the financial year 2018-19 at 7.4 per cent.
Maintaining 4 per cent inflation is appropriate for India as targeting a lower rate could impart deflationary bias to the monetary policy, said a Reserve Bank paper. Under the current dispensation, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The paper, authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and another official Harendra Kumar Behera, has found a steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1-4.3 per cent since 2014.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
The RBI on Friday said it will give banks Rs 1 trillion through targeted long-term repo operations (TLTROs), of up to three-year maturity, to deploy in "investment-grade corporate bonds, commercial paper, and non-convertible debentures over and above the outstanding level of their investments in these bonds as of March 27, 2020."
The volume in the anonymous trading platform, NDS-OM, was Rs 7,210 crore - less than half the normal volume, but not as bad as the start of the day indicated.
RBI had previously cut repo rate by 0.25 per cent each in January and March.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
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